http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WVtpao0KSM

So what is the truth? Is Iran ruled by a madman with a lust for nuclear weapons to nuke Israel with at the first opportunity? Well, first off, it’s worth watching Scott Horton’s recent comments about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Tom Woods posted this over at LRC:

I’m not saying that Iran is no threat to anybody and that they don’t do bad things. And, that’s not what Scott is saying here either. They could bomb some country tomorrow for all I know. But, of course, so could we. We drone bomb Pakistan almost every day. What he’s saying here is that the information about Iran we get in the news is a clipped, highly generalized version of the truth, so that it’s no longer truth. When MSNBC reports that Iran is “enriching Uranium,” they conveniently leave out all of the details.

But, even all of that isn’t necessary to get a good feel for what is up with Iran. It’s obvious. Just look at a map:

Iran is completely surrounded by the U.S. allies, and Turkmenistan is neutral. Even if they do have a super secret nuke program that the IAEA doesn’t know about, who could blame them? I’ve yet to hear anyone give a cogent argument for why Iran isn’t allowed to have nuclear weapons when so many other countries have them already. Even Pakistan, to their south has nukes. If I was Iran, I would want some nukes too.

The only argument you ever hear for why Iran shouldn’t have nuclear weapons is that they might nuke Israel. But, for that to happen, they would have to be completely insane. Why would they nuke Israel when there is no doubt that nuclear retaliation from multiple countries would be immediate and total. It’s called mutually assured destruction. It’s not just a quaint notion from the 80′s. Mutually assured destruction is logical. Adheminijad may have some odd beliefs and be a total anti-semite, but he isn’t stupid. He, like every other politician, wants power. And it’s hard to have power over a country laid waste by retaliatory nuclear strikes.

Like I said, I don’t claim to know a great deal about Iran, but I know enough about human nature and logic to know that the probability of them getting a nuclear weapon and firing them off at Tel Aviv unprovoked is pretty slim. It would be suicide.

Firstly, he’s wrong about a lot of the economic stuff that I thought he was right about. He’s always been a Milton Friedman-ite. And, while that’s better than being a Keynesian, ol’ Milton has plenty of his own problems. The so-called monetarist school that he comes from is way too friendly with the Federal Reserve and big government monetary policy. Rush thinks that guys who call for a return to hard money, like Ron Paul, are kooks. He’s completely wrong about this. A return to the gold standard would solve a great many problems we face in this country right now. Like I said, he’s not a wacko, but he just isn’t seeing things correctly. He’s got his economics down and he isn’t willing to dig any deeper.

Secondly, and more importantly, his penchant for the military has gone over the top. Case in point is his latest opinion that we should bomb the living hell out of Iran:

Now, the Iranians are denying this story, but it’s in multiple sources here. “The deputy minister, Mohammed Haj Mahmoud, said Iranian troops seized oil well No. 4 Thursday night in the al-Fakkah…” gotta pronounce that carefully “…oil field, located about 200 miles southeast of Baghdad. The oil field is one of Iraq’s largest.” However, as I say, the Iranians are denying this. Now, ladies and gentlemen, as far as Iran is concerned, let’s be blunt here. The only way to stop them is to destroy the Iranian regime, the mullahs, and that can only be accomplished through war. And by war I don’t mean ground troops, I mean massive bombing raids intended to destroy every one of the key targets. The question is whether we have the will to do this anymore. Danielle Pletka, from I think AEI, had a column on this in the Washington Post earlier this week basically stating our policy is one of containment and how erroneous and dangerous that is. It’s a leftover containment policy, mutually assured destruction that we had with the Soviets.

…

So if we don’t pound Iran into submission at some point they are going to get the bomb, they’re bragging about it, they’ve told us, they’ve shunned the inspectors, and they laugh about it all. If Israel doesn’t attack ‘em the world will be forever a hostage to an Islamic regime that could fire midrange and eventually long-range nuclear missiles when it chooses. Now, we know that Obama will not take effective military steps to stop Iran so if Israel doesn’t it will in fact become a nuclear regime. Obama will not do it because he doesn’t like the concept of victory, he’s uncomfortable with it, and he’d rather send letters to North Korea and to Tehran and have all kinds of meaningful dialogue. Economic sanctions in Iran will not work since the mullahs and ayatollahs are unaffected by it, they don’t care what happens to their people.

–Rush Limbaugh, 2009.12.18

I’m not going to go off pointing fingers and acting self-righteous because I used to be just as on board with all things military as he is. As recently as two years ago I would have said “Heck yeah man. Let’s bomb ‘em. Right on.” My recent studies have changed my mind though. And, I want to emphasize “my studies.” Not my feelings. Not my politics. Not my theology. It was my study of the historical facts about government and war that changed my mind on the military. I just can’t, in good conscience, support this stuff any more. It’s so obviously political. The whole Iran situation has been so hyped up that it’s nuts. Just like every other conflict we’ve been in or started. The facts never match the propaganda.

I want to ask one question. Why do we get to say what Iran does? Isn’t that Iran’s business. Don’t knee-jerk that question. Think about it seriously for a little while. What, exactly, is it that makes bombing Iran moral? Why do we get to make decisions on what they do on their own soil? Rush’s answer would be that if they complete the building of a nuclear bomb they will use it on us and/or Israel. Is that a fact? Is that an absolute fact with no reservations? Of course not. As a matter a fact, it’s probably the least likely scenario that there is. Why in the world would Iran launch a nuclear missle at us or Israel? As soon as they hit the freakin button there would be about 20 nukes in the air coming right back at them and they know that. They would have to not only be insane, but also suicidal. And, not just Amedhenijad. The whole upper cabinet of Iranian government would have to be suicidal maniacs, and I find that hard to believe.

But, that’s what happens when you take an attitude of pre-emptive war. It makes you see everyone as a bogeyman. Here’s a thought. Maybe the reason Iran wants a nuke is because Israel has had nukes for 40 years and they are tired of being at a disadvantage. I could absolutely be wrong about that and I’m willing to admit that. But, if I’m right and we go ahead and bomb Iran anyway then I’m afraid it’s going to be us who are the insane ones.

I think the real problem with Rush has to be that he’s just too isolated. I know that it’s always easy to play the “out of touch” card with someone who is so wealthy, but that’s not what I’m trying to say. I think he’s secluded himself from the public (with good reason by the way) so much that he’s lost the pulse of what’s going on under the surface. He knows that what’s coming out of big media is a bunch of hooey, but he’s missing what’s actually going on in the real world. This Republicans vs. Democrats thing is dead in the mind of many Americans. Many, many people see it all for what it is now. A big shell game where politicians pick their favorite big-media moral issue to whip up their constituency and then laugh about it over cocktails afterwords. Rush still actually believes that Republicans and Democrats are different. That’s his big mistake.

• Send 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan.
• Continue drone bombings on Pakistan border regions.
• Impose gasoline sanctions on Iran.

I guess that pretty much proves every libertarian’s point that there is no difference between the two parties when it comes to war.  They both love it.  Democrats like to pretend they are anti-war, but when someone who is really anti-war and not just showboating for the camera shows up they get all flustered and the real man comes out in the open.  Take Mr. Bill Moyers for example.  Moyers was a constant critic of the Bush wars, but listen to how flustered he gets when Lew Rockwell won’t take his “America is justified in policing all bad guys” bait:

The most recent imposing of gasoline sanctions on Iran is particularly disturbing. Remember, just like all taxes ultimately flow down to the individual, so do sanctions. All these gas sanctions are going to do is drive gasoline prices through the roof for the average Iranian and therefore solidify their support of ever-more radical regimes. Cutting off the free flow of trade is the most sure fire route to war. Like the saying goes, when goods can’t cross borders armies will. America can’t police the world. It’s not our calling to be an instrument of justice to the whole globe. And when we try, it backfires every time.

Evidently Obama doesn’t remember our oil embargo against Japan that led to our entry into WWII. Or maybe he does. Maybe he’s finding out that absolute power, and specifically the power to wage war comes in pretty handy in politics sometimes.

Of course, he’s right on each of his points, but I think it’s worth noting one thing. The main concern from the standard conservative side is always Israel. It’s said ad-nauseum that Israel will be the first shot fired when Iran gains a nuclear weapon. And, I think they are probably right. If there is going to be a shot fired, it would probably be toward Israel. But, what follows from that is what should be debated. Does is mean that we should intervene on Israel’s behalf? I don’t think so. They can take care of themselves just fine. They’ve done it a million times before and they’ll do what they think is best. Whatever that is, it’s not our privilege to interfere one way or another.

Part of being a sovereign nation is being responsible for your own matters. If Israel’s intelligence determines that Iran is a real and serious threat then they should do something about it. There’s nothing wrong with defending yourself. In fact, it’s the moral thing to do. We(the U.S.), on the other hand, should stay out of it. Our interference will do nothing but complicate matters, and at this point in the game we can’t afford getting involved in yet another middle east conflict. But, in the end, I find it hard to believe that Iran will go off and nuke Israel. Maybe I’m naive, but they have to know, just like any other nuclear power, that as soon as they push that button they have signed their own death warrant as well. Ahmedinijad might be radical, but I find it hard to believe that he’s that stupid.

“Experts believe that if Iran is attacked by Israel or the US, Teheran would respond by firing long-range ballistic missiles at Israel.”

Now why in the world would they fire missiles at Israel if they got attacked by the United States. What a total waste of resources during war-time. That’s a bit like the US firing missiles at Cuba if we were attacked by China. They are so obsessed with Israel that is distorts their judgment. If they could quit thinking about Israel for 5 minutes they might actually be a real threat, but instead they are just like Iraq who did the same thing in the first gulf war. Middle-Eastern countries just don’t understand how to wage proper war. That’s why Israel wins every time they are attacked.